Nifty dropped 0.6% as RBI’s rate cut and global trade tensions kept volatility high


Short Description:

Nifty closed lower amid global market weakness and RBI’s 25bps rate cut. Though the market showed recovery after initial drops, sectoral weakness, especially in PSU banks and IT, led to a red closing. Broader market and OI data suggest strong resistance near 22,500. Investors are closely watching tariff-related global developments, earnings season, and inflation data.


Nifty & Market Movement:

  • Opening: Down by 75 pts at 22,460.30
  • Intraday low: Near 22,350 post RBI rate cut
  • Recovery: 80-point bounce to 22,430
  • Close: 22,399.15 (🔻Down 0.6%)

Key Reason for Fall:

  • US markets reversed from highs overnight
  • RBI’s 25bps repo rate cut to 6%
  • High intraday volatility ahead of policy news

Sectoral Performance:

Gainers:

  • Nifty FMCG: +1.78% 🚀
  • Consumer Durables: +0.23%
  • Auto: +0.01%

Losers:

  • PSU Banks: -2.52% 🔻
  • IT Sector: -2.19%
  • Pharma: -1.97%

Only 3 sectors in green out of 12 – overall negative sentiment


Broader Market Snapshot:

  • Advancing Stocks: 1,083
  • Declining Stocks: 1,747
  • Unchanged: 79

Clearly shows weak participation across the board.


Derivative Data – Nifty OI (Expiring 17 April):

  • Max Call OI: 22,500 ➡️ Resistance
  • Max Put OI: 22,500, 22,000 ➡️ Support seen at 22,200

Interpretation:
Strong resistance between 22,500–22,700, while support is visible around 22,000–22,200


What’s Happening in India:

RBI’s Big Moves:

  • Repo rate cut of 25 bps to 6%
  • Shifted stance to accommodative
  • FY26 growth projection cut to 6.5% from 6.7%
  • Focus on supporting growth over inflation

Forex Reserves:

  • Hit $676.3 billion – highest in 5 months
  • Supports ~11 months of imports

Hiring Trends in Building Sector:

  • 30% growth in hiring (2023–2025)
  • Focus on sustainability & green roles
  • Women still just 12% of the workforce

SEBI’s Anti-Fraud Move:

  • Mandated all financial service calls from 1600 series to curb scams

Ather IPO Update:

  • Plans to cut IPO size by $50M amid market volatility

NBFC Gold Loan Stocks Fall:

  • RBI’s new gold loan norms hurt sentiment

Flipkart Fined ₹1.06 Cr by IRDAI:

  • Violated norms via ISNP platform
  • Used one person to sell 70,000 policies 😮

Cyient’s Chip Dream:

  • ₹860 Cr allocated to semiconductor subsidiary
  • Focus on EV, power, mature-node chips

Indian Oil’s Mega Plan:

  • ₹61,077 Cr to build Paradip Petrochemical Hub
  • Goal: Cut imports, support regional economy

IBM’s AI Lab in Lucknow:

  • Focus: Gen AI, job creation
  • Boosts UP’s AI hub vision

Global Highlights:

Brent Crude:

  • Down 3% to below $61
  • Due to OPEC+ hike, US-China tariff tensions

Metals:

  • Copper rebounds to $4.2/lb after 3-month low
  • Wheat rises on weather and tariffs

US Mortgage Apps Jump 20%:

  • As interest rates fall, both purchase & refinance demand rises

Dollar Index Falls to 102.3:

  • Near 6-month low due to safe-haven demand

Central Bank Watch:

  • RBNZ cuts rate by 25bps to 3.50%
  • China’s yuan weakens to 2007 levels (7.3498/USD)
  • BOE warns hedge funds may face margin calls due to volatility

Japan Tariff Talks:

  • Post Trump-Ishiba call, Japan may get tariff relief

Voices from the Top:

RBI Governor – Sanjay Malhotra:

  • Concerned more about tariff impact on growth
  • FY26 growth revised down to 6.5%
  • Crude easing may help inflation, but tariffs = major threat

Dinesh Khara – ex-SBI Chairman:

  • Co-lending reforms welcome, liquidity being managed via OMOs, not CRR
  • Deposit rate cuts may follow if credit remains low

Impact & Key Takeaway:

Impact on Market:

  • Uncertainty remains high due to global tariffs, RBI policy, and earnings season
  • Markets remain range-bound with key support/resistance zones defined
  • Sectors sensitive to policy (like PSU Banks, NBFCs, Gold Loans) reacting sharply

Key Lesson:

In uncertain times, it’s crucial to stay defensive and watch key support/resistance levels. Don’t trade on emotions—understand the macro triggers like RBI policy, global tariffs, and sector-specific news.

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